And then there were two… That’s where CA Dems find themselves now in the race to succeed Arnold next year. What started as a political free-for-all amongst 5 or 6 Dems in a bid to take back the governorship of the largest state in the U.S. has turned currently into a two man slugfest…Atty General (and former Gov) Jerry Brown vs. SF mayor Gavin Newsom. LA mayor Antonio Villaragosa dropped the bomb yesterday on national TV…and said in so many words…”I’m out.” Polls, even in LA, didn’t show him in strong position versus Brown (he had, however, beaten Newsom in those polls) and LA’s fiscal troubles rival the state’s own mess in terms of difficulty. So he’s staying put…for now. A run for U.S. Senator Diane Feinstein’s seat in 2012? Maybe. But that’s a loooooooong way off in political light years. We’ll see… So what does his exit do to the race? It likely strengthens Brown’s hand, as a bigger field would make Newsom’s job easier in peeling off enough votes to squeak through a Dem primary. He’s got a base…but right now it’s much smaller than Jerry’s. So Gavin may actually welcome those who may take a second look at the contest…if…and that is a gargantuan IF…they think Brown can be made vulnerable. Right now Jerry is sitting tight and sitting pretty…officially undeclared (but sending plenty of signs that he’s in) and leading by a long rock throw in every poll so far. So does some potential candidate with lots of cash and/or name ID jump in? Plenty of time…but they’ve gotta get moving. As soon as the current state budget is done (and that could take who knows how long…) the race for the post-Arnold gov kicks into high gear. Stay tuned.
Tags: analysis, Brown, California, citizen voice, gary dietrich, governor, Newsom, nonpartisan, race
