Judgement Day Approaches for CA State Budget

OK guys…this week is when the stuff really hits the fan at the state Capitol. Wednesday is Judgment Day, as with no budget July 1, Controller says IOUs are coming starting Thursday. So if the state owes friends or loved ones any cash…and you’re expecting some of it…you better get it quick. At this point…I see almost no chance of a balanced budget in place by then. What’s next? Almost certainly the state will hit the cash flow wall soon as well. Simply no way to pay bills unless they can borrow money… which ‘aint gonna be easy with no spending/revenue plan in place that lenders can believe in. Lots of bean counting tricks being floated under The Dome, but none solve the problem…and most now believe next fiscal year will be even worse.

LA Mayor Drops a Major Political Bomb by Dropping Race for Gov

And then there were two… That’s where CA Dems find themselves now in the race to succeed Arnold next year. What started as a political free-for-all amongst 5 or 6 Dems in a bid to take back the governorship of the largest state in the U.S. has turned currently into a two man slugfest…Atty General (and former Gov) Jerry Brown vs. SF mayor Gavin Newsom. LA mayor Antonio Villaragosa dropped the bomb yesterday on national TV…and said in so many words…”I’m out.” Polls, even in LA, didn’t show him in strong position versus Brown (he had, however, beaten Newsom in those polls) and LA’s fiscal troubles rival the state’s own mess in terms of difficulty. So he’s staying put…for now. A run for U.S. Senator Diane Feinstein’s seat in 2012? Maybe. But that’s a loooooooong way off in political light years. We’ll see… So what does his exit do to the race? It likely strengthens Brown’s hand, as a bigger field would make Newsom’s job easier in peeling off enough votes to squeak through a Dem primary. He’s got a base…but right now it’s much smaller than Jerry’s. So Gavin may actually welcome those who may take a second look at the contest…if…and that is a gargantuan IF…they think Brown can be made vulnerable. Right now Jerry is sitting tight and sitting pretty…officially undeclared (but sending plenty of signs that he’s in) and leading by a long rock throw in every poll so far. So does some potential candidate with lots of cash and/or name ID jump in? Plenty of time…but they’ve gotta get moving. As soon as the current state budget is done (and that could take who knows how long…) the race for the post-Arnold gov kicks into high gear. Stay tuned.

The mother of all CA fiscal showdowns has finally arrived!

The true mother of all CA fiscal showdowns has now fully arrived, to wit:

·        The Guv dropped a huge bomb late last week when he rescinded the state’s ability to borrow short-term for cash flow with so-called RAWs (Revenue Anticipation Warrants) – effectively forcing the Legislature’s hand to come up with a budget in the next few weeks, or literally cause the state to run out of money.
·        The Guv’s RAW move signals he is fully cranked up for a battle royal with the Leg.  He shows far less willingness to cave in this time around to whatever deal the Dems and Reps can come up with. Maybe the moment has truly arrived…when not only will he start “blowing up the boxes” of state government structures, but the budgetary smoke and mirrors as well.
·        The Dems in the Leg are in some seriously difficult political times.  Not only is there is no agreement between the Senate and Assembly Dem leadership about how to get a budget deal done, but inside the Dem caucuses, especially in the Assembly, semi-chaos breaks out at times on how much to cut, tax, and yell.
·        Reps in the Leg are mysteriously toned-down at present about the entire mess.  They may have done the political calculus and figured that the political winds are finally blowing in their favor after the May special election when it comes to a “NO NEW TAXES” mantra, and decided to let well enough alone.  Their possible strategy?  Let the Dems twist in the wind and have to go to the people alone if they want to deliver some seriously bad budget news…i.e. were coming at you with tax increases…like it or not.
·        Absolutely nobody knows at present what state agencies, departments, boards, commissions and programs are safe, done for, or somewhere in between.  Anyone who tells you they do isn’t paying close enough attention to the near frenzied, changing daily, climate under the dome at the state Capitol.  Don’t be fooled…this thing is a long way from over.

Gov. Schwarzenegger and the CA State Budget Crisis

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is up to his classic black Terminator shades in the worst budget mess in modern CA history. His address to a rare joint session of the Legislature this week made clear one important point…he has not a single thing on his mind right now except how to cut roughly $25B dollars and do it quick. He indicated absolutely no interest in tax increases, and appeared to attempt to provide political cover for both the left and right for this position based on the outcome of the May 19 Special Election. In his view, voters essentially said “get your act together in the Capitol, get it done, and don’t bother asking us for any more money.” While Arnold had in the past talked down tax and fee increases, this time he seems a lot closer to really meaning it. This point is important, because state budget negotiations over the past couple of deficit-ridden years have taken on almost surreal, never-to-be-trusted quality that goes something like this…”we’ve got a really big problem, but we can’t burden the people further, oh wow it’s a bigger problem than we thought, OK we’ll have to go ahead and upset the folks after all.” Forces inside and outside The Building (as insiders refer to the place with the big white dome in Sac) therefore simply tried to wait out the storm…and often were successful in avoiding a fiscal tidal wave by doing so. Deals were cut, most of them involving lots of accounting and fund shuffling that put the real tsunami off for another day. Well the Cat 5 storm has now hit, and those running up and down the halls of California’s statehouse, regardless of party or interest, seem to know it intuitively. The gig is up. And it ain’t going to be pretty. Most Californians are only beginning to get what those inside The Building already know all too well – what happens in the next 12-18 months is going to make past budget problems look like kindergarten. And Arnold looks reprise his K Cop role in a wholly different fashion…this time riding herd on a process that is going to make millions angry…many of them intensely so. Look for political forces to begin rising up soon talking about ballot measures for 2010 that have only been whispered about up to now…including a possible measure to return CA to a part-time legislature…the ultimate political sword hanging over the electeds tasked with cleaning up a fiscal mess unparalleled even in the minds of those who’ve been around Sac since before cell phones…heck…before fax machines and computers for that matter.

Driving through the Central Valley of the Golden State

Remember that California’s Special Election on May 19th is next week, so check out CitizenVoice.org to get informed!

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The Diversity of Politics Across This Great State

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Leaving Monterey and on to Santa Barbara…

Following a fantastic S.F. Bay Area tour stop (3 TV and 4 radio hits) on the Citizen Voice Nonpartisan Election Project 2009 media tour for the CA May 19 Special Election, just wrapped up 2 great radio hits this morning in the Monterey/Salinas/Santa Cruz market. On today to the Santa Barbara/Santa Maria/San Luis Obispo market where we’ll work through Sat. morning. You may have heard — big wildfire problem, with mandatory evacuations in Santa Barbara. I’m very familiar with the area, having gone to UCSB and worked in S.B. for several years. We’ll be looking to do media on the election project, but will also make ourselves available to media on the Citizen Voice SAFELY OUT Project which is a fantastic effort to help ensure that all, especially the most vulnerable, are evacuated safely during any natural or manmade disaster. More video blogs from the road coming soon. Check back!

First stop on the statewide media tour…

In San Francisco, Citizen Voice president Gary Dietrich makes his first stop on the statewide Nonpartisan Election Project Media Tour.

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Citizen Voice Launches Nonpartisan Election Project for May 19 Special Election!

Citizen Voice President Gary Dietrich goes behind the scenes of the “Mini-deabte”.  Check out where the actual videos were shot, and find out why this special election in California is so important.

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First Day of Increased Sales Tax in California

Citizen Voice President Gary Dietrich discusses the increased sales tax and the budget in California, and what this means nationwide.

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Water, water everywhere!

Citizen Voice president Gary Dietrich discusses California water crisis.

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California’s Special Election May 19th

Citizen Voice president Gary Dietrich talks about California’s budget and Special Election on May 19th.

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California’s Budget and Special Election

Watch Gary Dietrich discuss California’s budget and a possible Special Election!

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President Barak Obama’s Press Conference

Citizen Voice President, and nonpartisan political analyst, Gary Dietrich discusses President Barak Obama’s stimulus plan.

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Welcome to Gary Dietrich on Politics Blog!

Citizen Voice President, and nonpartisan political analyst, Gary Dietrich welcomes you to his blog!

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Fashion Becomes Voting

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3 Big Impacts on the Prez Race – 2 readily visible, 1 key one not

As the presidential race comes down to the last three weeks of incredibly dramatic primary and general election battles, three impacts overshadow all others.  These are the keys to what is unfolding now. Two of these have been much talked about.  One, and a critically important one, has received relatively little attention in the media, and most you hear talk about the race for the White House are unaware of it and its potential to seal the deal for one of the presidential tickets.

The most well-understood undercurrent in this year’s race for the top political job in the country is President Bush’s long and arduous struggle in the polls.  It has been many months since his approval ratings by the American public have been in positive territory, above 50%.  This has resulted in a serious and lasting drag on the McCain campaign, making it difficult to sustain momentum and keep the focus on a McCain future rather than a Bush past.  The Obama campaign has been highly successful in chaining McCain to the current president and Bush’s challenges in the polls.

The second serious impact on this race is now obvious to all – an economy that to some seems in freefall.  Challengers, in general, fare far better than members of the party sitting in the White House during tough economic times.  Clinton in ‘92 benefited from this effect, when even though the economic indicators had already begun trending up, people were worried and the Clinton campaign very effectively used their internal strategy of “It’s the economy, stupid” to win.  Here in 2008, the public’s economic angst is far greater than in ’92, and it could well be said that the appropriate catch phrase for this presidential campaign cycle is now “IT’S THE ECONOMY…PERIOD!!!”  The effect?  Advantage Obama.

Finally…on to the little discussed hidden key to the current dynamics of this year’s presidential contest.  Obama is dramatically outspending the McCain effort…especially in key battleground swing states.  I’ve heard amazing numbers that include one state where the difference is as great as 8 to 1.  That is a huge gap, one very difficult to overcome even without the two underlying impacts described above.  Why is this happening?  The accurate answer is actually pretty simple – McCain accepted the traditional presidential race funding mechanism of public campaign financing after that kicks in after formal nomination along with the significant fundraising and spending restrictions that come with it.  Obama did not.  The Obama fundraising machine has stunned even grizzled political veterans with its effectiveness, especially in huge numbers of online donations.  Obama’s ability to run multiple times more ads, in critical electoral states, is having an effect…perhaps an overpowering one.  How one views this disparity in spending depends on where one sits politically.  For Obama supporters, it’s a sign of strength.  For McCain backers, it’s a manipulation of message – they claim Obama’s initial commitment to stick to the traditional funding system and his later decision not to is dishonest politics.  For those who try to look at the political arena through less partisan lenses, it is again a sign of the significant strategic, and some would say concerning, role that money can play in politics.

This presidential race has taken many twists and turns over the last almost two years since it began in earnest.  Unforeseen bends in the road may yet take their toll and determine the victor.  When the final analysis is written, however, the three major impacts described above will undoubtedly deserve at least a chapter each.  They are real, they are key, and they may, in the end, be decisive.

You won’t believe the numbers!!

Quick word about the incredible success of the CV Nonpartisan Election ’08 Project already.  Since launching the project just days ago on October 1, the CV website has received over 166,000 hits.  We also have been listed in the “Top 100 Growing Blogs” by the firm that hosts our Election ‘08 blog pages on the CV website.  Get this….they host over 4 million blogs…and we’re in the top 100.  WOW!!!!

Absolutely fantastic start to the California statewide media tour for the Election ’08 project.  Began in the northern part of the state with network TV affiliate hits, morning radio shows, talk shows, national SIRIUS radio interview and lots more.  The response from the media has been outstanding.  We’re now in Monterey…head to Santa Barbara tonight and the LA area beginning Monday.  This state is huge…with more media markets than any other.

In my next entry…the current dynamics of the presidential race…what the dominant factors are now in the race and what might affect them to alter the course of the election.  Stay tuned…